Excel应用于方差分析的实训教学探究

针对国内应用型本科湖南文理学院院校概率统计课程的实训教学越来越多地注重Excel作为初学者操作平台的现状,就非平衡数据和嵌套结构的数据在Excel中实现方差分析的过程进行探究。突出以组内矫正数为主线整理数据后简化平方和分解公式的理念,使得Excel中进行方差分析时,数据整理流程完全格式化,平方和的分解步骤更为简洁,自由度分解、F检验等步骤不再繁琐,为非统计专业本科阶段借助Excel电子表格率先实现概率统计课程实训教学的宽口径模式提供借鉴。     

基于GIS的村级尺度统计数据空间化方法与时序分析初探

选择重庆市巴南区石龙镇大连村、大兴村、白马村、金星村、合路村、柏树村、大桥村、大园村和中伦村9个行政村作为研究区,将研究区的遥感影像、数字高程模型、行政界线等数据的空间参考坐标系统一为1980西安坐标系,选择2006-2012年研究区的农用肥施用量数据作为村级尺度统计数据空间化方法研究的研究数据,利用专家打分法对不同土地利用类型与农用肥施用之间的相关性进行打分,分值范围是0~1分。结合村级行政界线、行政村面积、农用肥施用量、土地利用数据和专家打分结果,构建农用肥施用数据空间化模型,分别生成2006-2012年村级农用肥施用数据空间化分布栅格数据,栅格尺度选择1、10、100和200 m这4种,并对栅格化结果进行对比分析。同时,对2006-2012年的农用肥施用空间分布数据进行时序分析,获取农用肥施用量的动态变化趋势。通过研究得到以下结论:1村级农用肥施用量数据空间化尺度与土地利用数据的类型及空间分辨率有关;2研究区各行政村农用肥施用量在2006-2012年期间总体变化趋于平稳。本研究对于实现村级统计数据空间化方法具有一定的参考意义,而空间化后的村级统计数据对于进行村镇区域规划、土地整改、生态环境保护等具有重要指导意义。     

Combining fishers’ knowledge and cost‐effective monitoring tools in the management of marine recreational fisheries: A case study of the squid and cuttlefish fishery of the Ría of Vigo (NW Spain)

A new methodology based in the use of fishers’ knowledge and cost‐effective tools to obtain information about marine recreational fisheries (MRF) is presented. The squid and cuttlefish fishery of the Ría of Vigo (NW Spain) was selected because it is managed in a data‐poor environment. In‐depth interviews (57) were conducted with fishers, collecting ecological and socio‐economic information. A cartography of fishing grounds based on their knowledge was obtained, while the intensity of effort and catches was mapped by the monitoring of two vessels with low‐cost GPS data loggers. The 102 shore anglers and 248 recreational boats catch 8 t/year of European squid Loligo vulgaris and 11 t/year of common cuttlefish Sepia officinalis (11% of total catches on these species in the area). Shore anglers fish from 11 ports, while boat fishers use 14 fishing grounds (covering 30 km²). Most of the catches (86%) are landed by boats, and their CPUE is higher in the outer part of the Ría of Vigo. The use of fishers’ knowledge and cost‐effective monitoring is encouraged to obtain information for the management of MRF. Given the economic contribution of MRF (260,000 €/year in direct expenses), this activity should be considered in the regulations.     

Preliminary recovery of coastal sharks in the south‐east United States

Relative abundance of many shark species in the Atlantic is assessed by compiling data from several independently conducted, but somewhat spatially limited surveys. Although these localized surveys annually sample the same populations, resulting trends in yearly indices often conflict with one another, thereby hindering interpretation of abundance patterns at broad spatial scales. We used delta‐lognormal generalized linear models (GLMs) to generate indices of abundance for seven Atlantic coastal shark species from six fishery‐independent surveys along the US east coast and Gulf of Mexico from 1975 to 2014. These indices were further analysed using dynamic factor analysis (DFA) to produce simplified, broad‐scale common trends in relative abundance over the entire sampled distribution. Effects of drivers including the North Atlantic Oscillation index, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation index, annually averaged sea surface temperature and species landings were evaluated within the DFA model. The two decadal oscillations and species landings were shown to affect shark distribution along south‐east US coast. Estimated common trends of relative abundance for all large coastal shark species showed similar decreasing patterns into the early 1990s, periods of sustained low index values thereafter and recent indications of recovery. Small coastal shark species exhibited more regional variability in their estimated common trends, such that two common trends were required to adequately describe patterns in relative abundance throughout the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic. Overall, all species’ (except the Gulf of Mexico blacknose shark) time series concluded with an increasing trend, suggestive of initial recovery from past exploitation.     

Life history demographic parameter synthesis for exploited Florida and Caribbean coral reef fishes

Age‐ or length‐structured stock assessments require reliable life history demographic parameters (growth, mortality, reproduction) to model population dynamics, potential yields and stock sustainability. This study synthesized life history information for 84 commercially exploited tropical reef fish species from Florida and the U.S. Caribbean (Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands). We attempted to identify a useable set of life history parameters for each species that included lifespan, length at age, weight at length and maturity at length. Key aspects of the life history synthesis were development of: (a) a database that characterized study details including sampling region, biological and statistical methods, length range of sampled individuals, sample size, capture gears and sampling time frame; (b) reproducible procedural criteria for parameter identification for a given species; and (c) a reliability metric for each parameter type. Complete life history parameter sets were available for 46 species analysed. Of these, only 16 species had parameter sets meeting the highest standards for reliability, highlighting future research needs.     

自然资源视角下的林地界定标准探究 ——以上海市某区为例

系统梳理国内外关于林地界定的标准,重点分析我国目前已发布的林地界定标准《林地分类》(LY/T1812-2009)和《土地利用现状分类》(GB/T21010-2017)的差异。以上海市某区为例,具体分析林地界定差异引起的数据统计及相关管理、审批等方面的问题,结合自然资源统一管控趋势,提出增加复合用地分类,统一具体认定口径,建立分类对照表,明确林地界定的状态等林地界定标准修订及相关管理完善建议。     

Ecological risk assessment of species impacted by fisheries in waters off eastern Taiwan

An ecological risk assessment was undertaken using productivity‐susceptibility analysis (PSA) to determine the relative vulnerability of 52 species caught by fisheries in the waters off eastern Taiwan. Overall, eight and 20 species were classified as having high and moderate vulnerability, respectively, and the remaining 24 species were classified as having low vulnerability. The species with the highest vulnerability scores were caught mainly by longline and gillnet fisheries, highlighting the need for improved data collection to facilitate a more detailed investigation using more quantitative methods. The data quality analysis indicated that the quality of data was classified as “moderate” for economically important species. However, many species were considered data‐limited and thus collecting high‐resolution catch and effort information and conducting biological studies, especially relating to age, growth and reproduction, are recommended to improve the reliability of outputs from data‐limited assessments such as PSA.     

Quantifying uncertainty in the wild‐caught fisheries goal of the Ocean Health Index

Sustainability indices are proliferating, both to help synthesize scientific understanding and inform policy. However, it remains poorly understood how such indices are affected by underlying assumptions of the data and modelling approaches used to compute indicator values. Here, we focus on one such indicator, the fisheries goal within the Ocean Health Index (OHI), which evaluates the sustainable provision of food from wild fisheries. We quantify uncertainty in the fisheries goal status arising from the (a) approach for estimating missing data (i.e., fish stocks with no status) and (b) reliance on a data‐limited method (catch‐MSY) to estimate stock status (i.e., B/B_MSY). We also compare several other models to estimate B/B_MSY, including an ensemble approach, to determine whether alternative models might reduce uncertainty and bias. We find that the current OHI fisheries goal model results in overly optimistic fisheries goal statuses. Uncertainty and bias can be reduced by (a) using a mean (vs. median) gap‐filling approach to estimate missing stock scores and (b) estimating fisheries status using the central tendency from a simulated distribution of status scores generated by a bootstrap approach that incorporates error in B/B_MSY. This multitiered approach to measure and describe uncertainty improves the transparency and interpretation of the indicator and allows us to better understand uncertainty around our OHI fisheries model and outputs for country‐level interpretation and use.     

两型社会建设背景下生态效率评价研究——以湖南省为例

基于"两型"社会建设的目标与内涵,选取了湖南省生态效率综合评价指标,以2003—2012年湖南省数据为样本,采用DEA数据包络分析法计算各年份的生态效率,并对不同年份的能源消耗量、水资源消费量以及三废的排放量进行深入分析。结果表明,随着湖南省GDP的增长,生态效率也不断在提高。针对不同的资源产出率和环境产出率,湖南省应树立可持续发展理念,实现经济由粗放型发展向集约型发展转变;发展创新技术,推进湖南省两型社会的发展;完善法律法规体系,加大宣传力度,改变保守观念,提高人们的环保意识。     

中国对美直接投资的产业选择研究

对于投资国来说，对外直接投资的产业选择对投资收益和潜在收益有较大影响。为了研究中国对美直接投资的产业选择对中国产业的影响，本文基于比较优势，构建发展中国家OFDI决策模型，通过构造评价指标以及构建回归模型，并利用2005-2014年中国对外直接投资数据、出口数据、行业相关数据对中国对美直接投资的效应进行了实证分析。结果表明，作为中国对美直接投资的两个重点产业，第二、第三产业可以为提高本国对应产业的比较优势提供支撑；中国对美直接投资、美国自身的产业比较优势、其他国家对中国直接投资、中国国内的固定资产投资、中国各行业从业人员数均有助于提高中国产业比较优势；由于中国内部约束和外部约束的原因，中国对美直接投资对提升中国产业比较优势的作用还不明显。